Comparison of Returning Offenses for 2008 Opponents
I am working on the second part of my blog entry that discusses why our defense will appear much improved this year, and in the process I have been compiling statistics for returning players on all of the offenses that we will be facing. The purpose will be to try to show that we will be going up against less experienced offenses this year than we did a year ago. I hope to have that up by this weekend.
In compiling the data, I started to realize how insane our offense will be this year compared to the opponents that we face. This analysis is purely based upon experienced production, or in other words proven players. I have not done any analysis of incoming players or players who did not contribute last year in a meaningful way. While this was not the purpose of my research, I was so blown away that I figured I may as well throw it up here as a separate discussion from my original intent. Have fun!
All percentages represent the percent of total production from last year attributed to players who will be playing this year.
This does not take into account suspensions or injuries for this year that I am unaware of.
Clearly, receiver is the one area that is the most balanced among the 3 categories among the top teams.
QB we win by a landslide. Same deal with overall rushing offense. We may not have a traditional rushing attack, but we certainly have no trouble moving the ball on the ground, and we easily return the most potent group of rushers.
From a pure scoring perspective, as measured by TD's only, we return players accountable for 60 TD's (includes only guys who crossed the goal line—not QB Passing TD's). The next closest is a tie between Tennessee and LSU with 39 each, and then Georgia with 33. Keep in mind that LSU and Tennessee also played an extra game.
I don't have time to dig into this right now and analyze it, but these numbers are pretty eye opening. A couple of quick points that I would look at in evaluating.
—This picture does not take into consideration key staff changes (HC or OC), new player additions, non-contributing players who grew up, and there is no OL data. If someone has a list of returning starters or projected starters on OL for each team that would be appreciated.
—I think it is fair to look at the OL percentages as a group and use it as a way to multiply or discount previous performances. That is also how I look at QB data.
—Before anyone points to new QB's having the potential to come in and play lights out, and using Tebow from last year as an example, please keep in mind that Tebow saw a lot of game action as a Freshman, and this helped greatly in his maturity. I think it is fair to say that Snead could be successful, although his returning skill players are awful, but I would think twice before jumping on the Marve bandwagon. He has never taken an official snap in college, Miami replaces the middle of their line, and their experienced skill players have not been as productive as advertised as a team.
—This data really highlights a teams performance over high profile individuals (Moreno and Stafford come to mind)
Written by GC Blogs Blip Page on July 31st, 2008 with
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